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“Bia Ha Noi” IPO: Gia khoi diem 50.000 dong co dat?

Thuong hieu Bia Ha Noi tren mot cung duong Quoc lo.

Khi Habeco quyet dinh IPO vao thoi diem thi truong suy giam, da co khong it y kien cho rang khong thich hop.

Tuy nhien, theo quan diem cua Tong giam doc Tong cong ty Ruou - Bia - Nuoc giai khat Ha Noi (Habeco) Nguyen Van Viet thi tong cong ty nay co du tu tin de dam bao IPO se dien ra thanh cong, boi le co mot so diem kha dac biet va khac biet chi co o Habeco.

Chat luong va thuong hieu

Bi quyet lua cho nguon nuoc va bi quyet cong nghe qua nhieu the he da lam nen Habeco trong Top 100 thuong hieu manh. Nguoi tieu dung du kho tinh den may cung phai thua nhan bia hoi, bia chai va bia lon Ha noi co chat luong rat “Ha Noi”.

Khong “on ao” trong tiep thi, nhung bia Ha Noi da duoc nguoi dan ca nuoc, dac biet cac tinh mien Bac, don nhan va hien nguon cung san pham nay van chua dap ung du cau.

Chien luoc phat trien thi truong

Habeco co chien luoc phat trien kha dac thu:

Thi truong trong diem: Tan dung the manh ve thuong hieu truyen thong, Habeco lua chon thi truong muc tieu la cac tinh phia bac tu Quang Tri tro ra de dau tu tap trung va trong diem, tranh doi dau voi cac thuong hieu bia khac tai cac dia ban ma don vi nay chua co loi the.

San pham trong diem: Habeco khong phat trien tran lan nhieu san pham ma chi tap trung vao 4 nhan hieu noi tieng: bia hoi, bia chai, bia lon va bia Premium. Habeco da thanh lap vien nghien cuu phat trien san pham bia ruou cua rieng minh de tao ra gia tri san pham khac biet.

Kenh phan phoi

Habeco da co tren 300 dai ly phan phoi tai hau het cac tinh phia Bac, voi chu truong xem kenh phan phoi la phuong thuc tot nhat de mo rong thi phan.

Quan ly san xuat, tieu thu va chat luong tap trung: Habeco phat trien mo hinh cong ty me con nham tap trung nang luc san xuat, thi truong tieu thu va dam bao su dong nhat ve chat luong tai tat ca cac co so san xuat bia.

Hien da co 12 cong ty con tai cac dia ban trong diem phia bac (Ha Noi, Hai Duong, Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Thanh Hoa, Nam Dinh, Quang Tri) va 9 cong ty lien ket. Thi phan Habeco da chiem khoang 40% tu Nghe An tro ra va ky vong se tang len 70% trong vai nam toi.

Viec tranh mo rong qua som thi truong vao cac tinh phia nam von chua phai la the manh cua Habeco da giup cho Habeco tranh bi phan tan nguon luc va tiet kiem duoc cac chi phi tiep thi va phat trien thi truong.

Nguon nhan luc va cong nghe phu tro

Habeco dang so huu doi ngu gom tren 50 ky su giau kinh nghiem va doi ngu lanh dao, quan ly da gan bo voi Habeco qua nhieu thoi ky, nhieu the he. Day la tai san lon cua Habeco.

Viec hinh thanh cac cong ty lien ket nham phat trien nganh nghe phu tro ve nguyen lieu va thuong mai phuc vu cho muc tieu toi thuong la san pham bia ruou chu khong phai mat hang nao khac.

Doi tac chien luoc

Habeco gay khong it ngac nhien cho nha dau tu ve cach lua chon doi tac chien luoc.

Khac voi Vietcombank hay Bao Viet lua chon doi tac chien luoc song song voi qua trinh co phan hoa va muc tieu thu loi ve gia ban duoc coi trong, Habeco lua chon doi tac chien luoc tu rat som, truoc khi co phan hoa.

Habeco khong dat muc tieu ban gia cao ma can o doi tac chien luoc nhung mat Habeco con thieu. Carlsberg la nha dau tu co the bo sung cho Habeco nhung mat ma Habeco dang rat thieu nhu dao tao nguon nhan luc, kinh nghiem quan ly va phat trien thi truong.

Tinh thanh khoan

Dong tien thu duoc va tinh thanh khoan cao cua tai san trong bao cao cua Habeco la the manh ma nhieu doanh nghiep ngoai nganh bia kho co the co duoc. He so thanh toan nhanh: 3.6; he so thanh toan hien hanh: 7,22; vong quay hang ton kho: 12,3; vong quay khoan phai thu: 88.

Y kien cho rang Habeco chua phat huy duoc nhieu loi the dong tien tuy co xac dang, nhung chinh day lai la diem rat thuan loi cua Habeco sau khi co phan hoa. Cac hoat dong dau tu khac cua Habeco ngoai bia chi la thu yeu va chiem ty trong nho de dam bao ty le an toan cao. Co che linh hoat cua cong ty co phan va mo hinh cong ty me-con nhieu kha nang se lam tang hieu qua su dung luong tien nay sau IPO.

Tiem nang thi truong

Bia van con duoc coi la mat hang “xa xi” co he so co dan doi voi thu nhap lon tren 1. Theo uoc tinh, tieu thu bia binh quan dau nguoi cua Viet Nam hien con o muc khiem ton khoang 20 lit/nguoi, chiem khoang 1,7% thu nhap.

Muc tieu thu bia binh quan dau nguoi chi bang 1/2 so voi Han quoc va bang 1/6-1/7 so voi Ireland, Duc, Sec.

Theo du bao, quy mo dan so Viet Nam se tang tu 85 trieu len 100 trieu vao nam 2023 va on dinh o muc 120 trieu dan. Trong vong 15 nam nua , su tang truong 20% ve quy mo dan so, 200% GDP binh quan dau nguoi (5% nam) cung voi muc tieu thu bia binh quan dau nguoi tang len nhu muc cua Han Quoc hien nay thi nhu cau tieu thu bia uoc se tang gan 5 lan.

Co le day la con so mo uoc ve su tang truong cua thi truong bia va do cung la ly do cac hang bia noi tieng nhu Heneiken, Carlsberg, Tiger, SanMiguel, Foster van tiep tuc dau tu vao thi truong cung voi tren 400 co so san xuat bia dang hoat dong.

Habeco dang chiem khoang 10-12% thi phan bia ca nuoc. Co rat nhieu ly do de tin rang con so thi phan 15% Habeco se dat duoc trong mot thoi gian rat gan.

Gia khoi diem 50.000 dong co dat?

Day la cau hoi lam khong it nha dau tu "dau dau" de dua ra quyet dinh nen hay khong tham gia dau gia co phan Habeco.

Trong luc thi truong chung khoan dang suy giam va gia cua hau het cac co phieu tren san deu re o muc PE 15-16, thi muc gia khoi diem 50,000 VND tuong duong PE=25 (neu tinh day du bao cao hop nhat thi EPS cua Habeco khoang 2.000) rat kho hap dan nha dau tu ngan han.

Trong vong 1-2 nam toi, Habeco van trong giai doan dau tu phat trien nen EPS se bi pha loang, do vay viec nam giu co phieu Habeco kho mang lai loi nhuan mong muon trong ngan han.

Co le quyet dinh dau tu dai han vao Habeco moi dang duoc cac nha dau tu co to chuc quan tam. Ngoai viec gop 10% von la doi tac chien luoc, hang bia Carlsberg da nhan mua het so co phan khong ban het trong dot dau gia nay voi gia bang muc gia khoi diem 50.000 dong.

Habeco cung co khao sat, lam viec voi nhung doi tac trong nuoc nhu nha tieu thu, dai ly phan phoi va khoi nha dau tu nay cho biet, se dang ky mua khoang 20% luong ban ra.

Nhu vay, co the thay suc cau doi voi co phieu Habeco la kha tot de dot IPO thanh cong. Kho co ai hieu biet hon gia tri that cua Habeco hon chinh nhung nguoi dang lam viec tai Habeco, cac dai ly bia va dac biet la Carlsberg va mot khi cac nha dau tu nay tich cuc tham gia la can cu rat dang de cac nha dau tu khac tham khao.

Moi nha dau tu deu co cach nhin va cam nhan rieng ve Habeco. Nhung han che hien tai cua Habeco ve hieu qua su dung von, phat trien va mo rong thi truong phia nam, ty suat loi nhuan thap da duoc noi den trong mot so phan tich. Tuy nhien, dieu khong the phu nhan la mat hang bia dang phai chiu thue suat tieu thu dac biet, lai them ca thue khai thac tai nguyen nuoc. Mot khi cac loai thue suat nay duoc dieu chinh ve muc hop ly trong nam nay va nhung nam toi, co the hy vong loi nhuan Habeco se tang len dang ke.